91 Comments
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Nathan Woodard's avatar

Great piece. And a real breath of fresh air to hear one of our serious thinkers acknowledge the degree of uncertainly and instability that prevails. Perhaps it's time to recategorize our "serious people" as forming a large group of influential people that happens to contain a tiny group of serious thinkers. These difficult times have shined a bright light on the shortage, among the former, of the latter. More disturbingly, a significant fraction of our most serious thinkers are being sidelined and publicly smeared just at a time when they are most desperately needed. Thanks as always for publishing your certifiably serious thoughts.

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Cory Powell's avatar

Trump is going to lie tomorrow.

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Yascha Mounk's avatar

🤣 Fair!

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Norman Dale's avatar

Towing the MAGA line perfectly.

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LV's avatar

Even if you believe the only certainty is that Trump will bring great change, it well known (in genetics) most mutations are harmful, so I don’t believe the odds of success and failure are symmetrical. Especially because the changes he is making are not based on high quality information.

The law of entropy means it is harder to bring increases in order than decreases. The fact that our economy is decentralized makes us a little less fragile than otherwise, but a bull in a China shop usually leaves a mess.

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Young-jin Choi's avatar

It is important to keep the stated intent of the maga/thiel-coalition in mind, which is the consolidation of the „patrimonial regime“ and the end of democratic basic rights and of the separation of powers. The playbook for regime change was provided by project 2025 and Curtis Yarvin. Sadly It is very likely that there won’t be free and fair elections in 2028. https://www.persuasion.community/p/sins-of-the-father

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The Radical Individualist's avatar

Cute. What the Biden regime did for the last four years seems to escape your notice. Why is that?

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Josh of Arc's avatar

Way to make an ass of yourself. What a stupid and irrelevant comment Mr. non-conformist. The article was about the future of the world order. Why the fuck does he have to talk about the previous president who’s no longer in office? Here’s some advice: If you’re ignorant and have nothing to say, then just shut the fuck up and don’t be a nuisance.

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The Radical Individualist's avatar

It appears that I've hit a nerve...

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Vicki Lee's avatar

Do people actually still sniff model airplane glue?

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Jim Shilander's avatar

Not all of us can adhere to the political philosophy of a five-year-old

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The Radical Individualist's avatar

Ah, the classic ad hominin response...

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Jim Shilander's avatar

also accurate

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Mitch Ritter's avatar

We were taught brevity with manners from Moms & Dads and bigger sisters and brothers with wicked left hooks....................

Tio Mitchito

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Cpa77's avatar

This is not a serious view.

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Jeff's avatar

Yes, I agree, the Dems will try to cheat in ‘28 just as they successfully did in ‘20

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Young-jin Choi's avatar

Here is some critical background information about Curtis Yarvin and his connection to Thiel, Vance, Musk etc. https://open.substack.com/pub/shanealmgren/p/democracy-is-done-the-rise-of-corporate

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Peter's avatar

Refreshing admission of our natural state of being, non prescience.

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Sid Johnson's avatar

And this is why I subscribe. TY for an honest assessment.

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The Radical Individualist's avatar

"He has tried to sweep aside traditional checks on the power of the president, for example by firing 17 independent inspectors general tasked with tracking corruption and fraud within the government."

And yet, Biden's presidency was easily the most corrupt and dangerous presidency in the history of the USA. I guess those 17 independent inspectors weren't doing a very good job. More likely, they were titular inspectors, whose real job was to give and appearance of propriety to a very corrupt administration.

Washington DC is a rat's nest of political opportunists. You won't solve the problem by hiring more foxes to guard the henhouse. Trump continues to amaze me with his ability to cut like a knife thru the massive bureaucracy. He is the right person at the right time.

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Café at 9 of the matin's avatar

Wow, outlandish claim with no evidence presented. Completely missing the point of the article, promoting whataboutism from the irrelevant past.

For sure stay ignorant, but please do it quietly, the rest of us want to read interesting articles and comments. Your dross would fit better over at Twitter.

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The Radical Individualist's avatar

"...irrelevant past"?

Nothing in the past is irrelevant. Certainly not Biden's weaponization of the FBI and DOJ. Of course, the FBI has been weaponized long before Biden. You knew that, right? And you knew that Trump committed no impeachable offenses. You understand the specific charges that were filed against him, and that they were 100% political, right? You thoroughly understand the "34 felonies": were based on nothing more than an entry into the books. Trump's bookkeeper entered payments to his lawyer under 'legal expenses'. Well, why wouldn't he? Only a fool doesn't recognize that it was entirely political.

As for being quiet, forget about it. You'll just have to listen as more and more of us stop being quiet in the face of progressive tyranny. BTW, I got a lot of 'likes' on the comment. Yours is the only negative one. It's not me that's the problem, Cafe, it's you.

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Café at 9 of the matin's avatar

Lol, it's just so boring. Could I condense down what you says "boo hoo what about the other guy"? No defence of Trump just pure ignorance of what happens around you. Enjoy your likes!

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Mar 8
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Café at 9 of the matin's avatar

Projecting?

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Mar 8
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Frederick's avatar

"A lot of journalists and social media personalities claim to know the answer. Some believe that he will have accomplished such amazing things that he will be extraordinarily popular"

Mussolini and Hitler were very popular for a long time. Mussolini got the trains to run on time, under Hitler the economy boomed, I'm sure egg prices were reasonable, and he greatly expanded Germany. "Minor irritations" like totalitarian dictatorship, racial laws, concentration camps filling up, etc. did not have a negative effect on Hitler's popularity for a long time. In fact the German people stubbornly fought for him, until he very end

Those who fail to see this are just suffering from HDS and MDS

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Citizen Raff's avatar

👍

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Opa Bear's avatar

At the earlier stages of Hitler's career, Germans would joke that if they had lost the right to vote and speak, they had also lost the right to starve.

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Cpa77's avatar

I can predict one thing. Regardless of what Trump does or doesn’t do, those who have decided to hate him will continue to do so. It is a part of their core identity. They are not really interested in what is best for this country, they care only about keeping their membership to the TDS club. There are so many reasons to dislike Trump, you’ll get no argument from me on that. But the blind adherence to easily disprovable lies and the willful ignorance on actual polices is inexcusable. These people should not be taken seriously but sadly, they are. And they are the real threat to Democracy.

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Jane's avatar

If, as you well point out, no one knows the outcome of the current events affecting the US, then why even pose the question and write a column about it? It only reveals that you apparently need enough material for a column today, and not much else. Would you have written a comparable column after the first month of Biden's (or any previous president's) term in office? And in retrospect, how well might that column have withstood the test of time? Any idea how corrupt the whole Biden family has turned out to appear? Any indication of how his future Afghanistan or student loan "forgiveness" might appear as people assess his policies?

If your column shows us anything, it is that the US mood right now is one of confusion over long-overdue federal spending and employment reductions, so that in itself is a contribution to our general knowledge. But surely you know why these cutbacks are necessary to correct long-running fiscal mischief and Americans' general desire for ever-lower taxes and ever-higher federal handouts. IMO---and this is what I hope Trump is working toward---there will inevitably be some retrenchment and even possibly what some may call "austerity" before this current era is over. I, for one, believe that the US Constitution is strong enough to withstand this confusion, that it shall pass in due course, and you will have ample opportunity to write about other issues in weeks and months ahead.

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kyle smith's avatar

I like your posts / writing. I may not agree with everything that you say but I enjoy the thought processes involved.

I see the choice as a fairly binary one, a new world order or old world disorder.

The only thing I find hard to understand us how nuclear weapons fit into this.

Supposedly the dawn of nuclear weapons created a new age.

Proxy wars were the only way superpowers could fight as an all out war would lead to total destruction. Hence the cold war.

Anyway that's my 2 cents worth.

I could go on ...

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LV's avatar

I am not sure of the premise. Given how polluted the information environment is, Trump’s popularity won’t depend on how successful our economy is or how well he pulls off his vision of MAGA. Trump the narcissist is an expert at distraction and projecting blame, and his followers swallow whatever narrative he spoon-feeds them.

History has shown that Trump has an impregnable popularity floor of about 40% of Americans, no matter what he does, and 10-15% of the remainder are highly persuadable.

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Opa Bear's avatar

Of course there will be diehards. The point is to persuade just one more than 50% and be prepared for the backlash from the rest.

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Geoffrey G's avatar

Most “serious people” believed that Trump wouldn’t win in 2016 and they were wrong. But most “serious people” believed that he would win in 2024, and they were right—it turned out.

Fool me once! We are pretty familiar with Trump’s world now. We are also very familiar with his style of power. We had four years of it already, remember? Seriously, this fact seems to have been memory-holed by friend and foe alike, who, like you, operate under the conceit that Trump’s next moves are totally unpredictable, when they aren’t. He’s doing the same stuff, just more and faster and without any dissent from his own party. Therefore we can see where this is all going… and it’s *not* in the direction of 60% approval ratings in 2028, I’m more than 60% sure. Unless we are to believe that his old bag of tricks will work very differently than before for some reason?

I can’t tell you what crisis he will trip up over or which of his brazen moves will turn out to be the one where he jumps the shark—only that he already has and will continue to overreach in ways that will cause unease, alienation, disillusionment, and finally a sense of betrayal among enough of even his own super fans that they will turn or at least disengage. It already happened in 2020. The Democrats were just too feckless to take much advantage afterward. And maybe they still are. But Trump’s moment will have crested …again. And I don’t see the obvious successor to a 82-year-old, newly-unpopular lame duck nursing resentments from Mar-a-Lago …again.

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John Woods's avatar

If the peace treaty with Ukraine gives Putin all he asks for and he then invades Ukraine again in 2026 and takes over the country, as Hitler did with Czechoslovakia in 1938,will the Americans wake up to the thought that Trump is controlled by Putin. This is certainly thought likely in the UK. Can the system right itself in 2026 Midterm elections? If the Republicans retain both houses in 2026 Trump will be a dictator by 2028.

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Citizen Raff's avatar

Best "serious" comment so far. Will you please, please point me to some of those "serious beliefs" on Trump 2024? Someone told me back in September, and it wasn't possible to engage then, but ever since I kept thinking what was it that I missed. Did I miss something actually serious , or it's just the 50/50 effect? I'd really want to know to verify my own perceptions, analyses, affinities, etc. Thank you in advance!

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Geoffrey G's avatar

You’d have to have a subscription to the likes of the NYT, WaPost, Bloomberg, et al to look back at the articles I was seeing in the spring/summer of 2024, when Democrats were in full panic mode that Biden was extremely unpopular and Trump was set to win. Independent pollsters were mostly saying the same thing that it was Trump’s to lose. There was a brief flowering of optimist when Biden finally passed the baton to Harris in the summer, but by the mid-fall it was clear that the Harris bump was just too limited and had peaked at too low a level for anything by a 50/50 photo finish, at best.

So I just wasn’t hearing any “serious” voices in 2024 that thought that Biden (or Harris) was definitely going to win, and I was following the race obsessively.

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Citizen Raff's avatar

Ok, thank you!

I was following, but it was unclear what polling was picking up. Ultimately, it appears that the final breakdown of more people voting for someone other than Trump was not picked up by those sources. And swing states by definition are 50-50. Given that voter roll purges were at all time high I thought that predictions either way were not substantiated.

Oh well. The lessons do not seem to be taken seriously so far...

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Citizen Raff's avatar

👍👍👍

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Harry Schiller's avatar

Very true about Trump threatening extreme action, then realizing he would become a pariah or have to read or know something to steer his country’s ship out of the choppy waters he has just gotten into, and then retreating to cruise control Republican politics.

I don’t think Trump would ever get down to 20% approval, though. Maybe 38-40% if the economy goes bad. His voters do not care if Ukraine is abandoned, do not care if urbanites have to pay more for imported goods because of tariffs, and do not care if Canadas’ left wingers are incensed. They basically want to see the left put in their place- no more racial quotas, no more demonization of American history and white American culture, no more transgenderism and child butchering and drugging, no more handing out money to useless lefty charities all around the world.

I agree with them on most of this.

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Roger Farquhar's avatar

I can guarantee that the world will be far worse under Trump.

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David Spitzer's avatar

The both sides-ism is strong with this one. We do have an educated guess what the world will look like after four (more) years of Donald Trump, because he was ALREADY PRESIDENT ONCE. The years of 2016-2020 appears to be memory-holed by most pundits, but they provide the best indication about what is to come. You're dealing with a geriatric narcissist who has shown zero signs of learning from his mistakes, mending fences with his political foes, or working to build any sort of consensus that might yield an approval rating akin to '09-Obama.

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Frederick Roth's avatar

I disagree - for 2 reasons: firstly the term was marred by Covid s completely screwed up whatever DT45 was planning to do; secondly due to previous bureaucrat obstructionism DT47 has decided to use the chainsaw and sledge and force everything asap - then live with consequences. The greatest threat is exuberant overreach because he has a free hand of not needing to worry about reelection. We already have the following successes:

Abolishment of gender ideology

Abolishment of DEI

Severe rollback of illegal immigration

Forcing NATO to rearm

The Democrats are playing into his hands with the Congress speech stunts. You don't need to mend fences with foes if you can defeat them outright.

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Tessa Robbins's avatar

We aren’t supposed to be defeating each other. Our country is proud of the “United we Stand, Divided we Fall”, yet I would argue we are the most divided we’ve ever been. Other Americans are not foes…that’s a slippery slope to an Americanized version of what happened in Germany. What has happened to humanity?

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Frederick Roth's avatar

The point I was making is that Dems are paying into Trump's hands with performative stunts like the pink jackets thing.

America has so been more divided - there was a civil war & all. And the social conflict like Jim Crow was way worse. The main problem is that people's sense of security is slipping due predominantly to economic issues, and the left has completely abandoned working class people as Bernie pointed out.

If you want to "stand united" Dems need to mend that abandonment. The mainstream feeling is abandonment by elites and that the "professional managerial class" hate their own people. That is why ppl threw their lot in with the alt-right.

Stop calling everybody racist, stop with the trans-everything etc - what is required is obvious, its just the left refuses to do it.

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Tessa Robbins's avatar

Women have continuously stood up for women’s rights at the congressional hearings. When Biden gave his first speech, women wore white. Now they choose to wear pink. Trump is not special in that regard. I am not a democrat. I’m also not a republican. The far right and far left have no business running our country…they are more focused on party lines than they are their own people. Anyone who thinks that Trump cares about them as an individual being is deluding themselves. He has shown us that he will do and say anything to keep power, hence the hints that he wants to run for a third term. Anyone who believes he is a good man is playing right into Trumps hands. I also find it ironic that your profile picture is that of a man who loathes what the rich oligarchy is doing to our country. Trump is worth $4.9 billion. He hasn’t been a part of the working class in a long time. Both radical lefts and rights need to suck it up and learn to work together for the betterment of our country. Toss the hate in favor of bettering humanity. A note: I appreciate your willingness to explain your views without resorting to name calling. That makes you 80% more civilized than others responding to this article.

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Frederick Roth's avatar

Look I’m a working class person whose patience with the left has expired long ago and as a result embraced the nihilism of the alt right. I did so out of frustration and sense of betrayal rather than actually holding conservative values.

For several years I have been a “TERF” supporting fightback against gender ideology. No better example of progressive failure than sacrificing 50% of the population for a tiny minority with dubious claims.

The only politician that gets it is Bernie S but the Dems refuse to listen to him. I don’t think DT cares about us but he will shake things up the system and hopefully allow a reset.

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