So very true... Americans these days want it both ways. But a vast majority have zero trust in politicians of ANY side to lead them or make the proper choices. Washington is broken and run by self promoting narcissists and power mongers. The populous knows this and wants nothing to do with Washington, state capitals of other counties. We are becoming our own recluses, at home and abroad.
Well said. The position of America as global economic and military leader is so entrenched, so much on automatic, that it seems difficult to imagine a major shift. Said just before the fall, I know, but the fundamental reasons for that position, the driving forces of it, don't seem to be in danger of abating, much less falling off a cliff. America's economy is a wealth-producing machine because it is strongly free while at the same time strongly bound by a relatively stable rule of law. America's military is preeminent because it's so large and powerful and highly unlikely to become significantly less so. Unlike the Roman Empire, let's say, the pax Americana faces no serious threat on its territory, its basic methods, its basic agreements and operations, all of which represent win-wins for far too many people and nation-states around the globe.
I wouldn't say that all this is completely idiot-proof, but I would say that I've never been so grateful for America's so constitutionally rigorous dilution and dispersal of political power amid a liberal -- by global standards, libertarian -- economic regime, a bargain that produces in ordinary times economic dynamism and political sclerosis. The latter is very bad in times of emergency, and also very bad at expanding the safety net, building big infrastructure, or tackling climate change. At the same time, as a liberal in just about all senses of that word, I'm tempted to think that we've passed pretty much all the federal laws we really need and that we're not, thankfully, facing an emergency -- and that when we vote for jackasses, as we did in 2016 and may do again, sclerosis, as safeguard, is a godsend.
China passed the US in GDP years ago. The CIA has the actual facts well in hand.
China GDP - $23,009,780,000,000 (2020 est.)
USA GDP - $19,846,720,000,000 (2020 est.)
note: data are in 2017 dollars
Take a look at the Coal, Steel, Cement, Aluminum, Copper, Cobalt, etc. numbers. China is absurdly far ahead. China is far ahead in electric power (but not absurdly far ahead). The US leads China in Petroleum (by far).
Does China face future problems (including demographic)? Sure it does. So does the US.
In 1915 Great Britain was thought to be a world power and the US wasn’t. In real life, the US economy passed the UK 40 years earlier.
The reality is that liberal democracy in the West is in deep decline and authoritarian states are on the rise. China passed the US in real GDP years ago and hasn’t looked back. For better or worse, authoritarian China is a rising power and ‘woke’ America is a declining power. I have a single line that summarizes the decline of the USA and the rise of China.
“China is very good at building dams, the US is very good at enforcing PC. Which system will prevail in the 21st century?”.
I'm no expert, and I'm worried about woke run amok as well, but I think it is possible to overstate its influence. You suggest that the US is very good at enforcing PC. I would say it's very good at producing wealth.
Measuring GDP by purchasing power parity is helpful for comparing living standards, but it is less helpful for comparing the relative global strength of economies. For that, nominal GDP, or GDP at current exchange rates, is a more accurate measure. By that measure, even though it has long been predicted that China's nominal GDP would have overtaken the U.S.'s by now, it hasn't happened. According to The Economist, China's GDP was 75% of America's in 2021, and it has been going dramatically in the wrong direction since. It is now 65% of America's. And, of course, per capita GDP, a good indicator of a nation's economic productivity, is nowhere close. Thus, the population trends Mounk highlights -- Chinese population decline, American population increase -- are quite important when thinking about the future. This story is simply not consistent with your dire view.
What's most encouraging to me about America is that it seems to have largely escaped the sort of slowing trends that have bedeviled other rich, mature economies. We may yet prove susceptible to those trends, especially if we dramatically restrict immigration while at the same time experiencing declining birthrates among the native-born, especially if we turn sharply protectionist and autarkic. But it seems more likely to me that the American economy will keep bopping along, attracting massive amounts of global investment and talent and producing the next big thing, which, right now, appears to be AI, led by, as nearly always in the modern world, American companies.
China’s nominal GDP lags the US for now. However, that is not (in this context), the good news. The Chinese currency is undervalued and China enjoys a vast trade surplus. The US, by contrast, has an overvalued currency and suffers from a vast trade deficit.
By 2050, China’s economy will be 2X-3X the USA.
I would say that steel production is a (one of several) measure of economic power, not growth China produced 1019.1 million tons of steel (2023). The U.S. produced 80.7 million tons of steel in the same year. China is ‘only’ 12.6x the US. Of course, China’s lead in other areas is even greater. For example, China produces 29.6 times as much cement as the US. China is far ahead in Copper, Gold, Cobalt, Nickel, Aluminum, etc. In other areas, China isn’t doing as well. For example, the US produces vastly more Natural Gas than China. The US also produces a lot more oil than China. I would argue that overall agricultural position of the US is better than China (flatter, fewer people, more fertile).
Of course, Natural Gas and Oil are driven mostly by geology. Both China and the US have lots of Coal (in the ground). China produces 4.126 billion tons (2021). The US produced 523.8 million tons in the same year.
I would say that coal and steel were good (arguably the best) measures of economic power from 1850 to 1950. After 1950, less so. These days electric power is a measure of economic power. China produces twice as much as the US. However, there are problems using power production as a measure of economic power. Some countries are more ‘electricity intensive’ than others. For example, China use electricity to heat water (there must be exceptions) whereas the US typically burns Natural Gas.
GDP is a good measure of overall economic power. China passed the US (in GDP) around 2012 and China’s lead (in GDP) has only grown. GDP is not perfect. For example, the US passed the UK in GDP in the early 1870s. Did that make the US a dominant world power? Not exactly. In the early 1870s, US GDP contained a rather large farm component which contributed little to global economic power. The US had just finished the Civil War and was deeply isolationist. Neither statement applied to the UK.
By contrast, China’s GDP contains a rather large manufacturing component that does contribute to world economic power. To state this directly, China punches above it’s weight.
The US has a rather large service sector that does not contribute to world economic power. To state this directly, the US punches below it’s weight.
So very true... Americans these days want it both ways. But a vast majority have zero trust in politicians of ANY side to lead them or make the proper choices. Washington is broken and run by self promoting narcissists and power mongers. The populous knows this and wants nothing to do with Washington, state capitals of other counties. We are becoming our own recluses, at home and abroad.
Well said. The position of America as global economic and military leader is so entrenched, so much on automatic, that it seems difficult to imagine a major shift. Said just before the fall, I know, but the fundamental reasons for that position, the driving forces of it, don't seem to be in danger of abating, much less falling off a cliff. America's economy is a wealth-producing machine because it is strongly free while at the same time strongly bound by a relatively stable rule of law. America's military is preeminent because it's so large and powerful and highly unlikely to become significantly less so. Unlike the Roman Empire, let's say, the pax Americana faces no serious threat on its territory, its basic methods, its basic agreements and operations, all of which represent win-wins for far too many people and nation-states around the globe.
I wouldn't say that all this is completely idiot-proof, but I would say that I've never been so grateful for America's so constitutionally rigorous dilution and dispersal of political power amid a liberal -- by global standards, libertarian -- economic regime, a bargain that produces in ordinary times economic dynamism and political sclerosis. The latter is very bad in times of emergency, and also very bad at expanding the safety net, building big infrastructure, or tackling climate change. At the same time, as a liberal in just about all senses of that word, I'm tempted to think that we've passed pretty much all the federal laws we really need and that we're not, thankfully, facing an emergency -- and that when we vote for jackasses, as we did in 2016 and may do again, sclerosis, as safeguard, is a godsend.
China passed the US in GDP years ago. The CIA has the actual facts well in hand.
China GDP - $23,009,780,000,000 (2020 est.)
USA GDP - $19,846,720,000,000 (2020 est.)
note: data are in 2017 dollars
Take a look at the Coal, Steel, Cement, Aluminum, Copper, Cobalt, etc. numbers. China is absurdly far ahead. China is far ahead in electric power (but not absurdly far ahead). The US leads China in Petroleum (by far).
Does China face future problems (including demographic)? Sure it does. So does the US.
In 1915 Great Britain was thought to be a world power and the US wasn’t. In real life, the US economy passed the UK 40 years earlier.
The reality is that China is rising and the US/Europe are falling. The US was 40% of GDP in 1960 and 24% in 2019. See https://www.visualcapitalist.com/u-s-share-of-global-economy-over-time/. These numbers appear to be nominal GDP (not PPP) based. China was just 4% of global GDP in 1960. By 2019, China reached 16.3% of global GDP. Of course, Europe is in decline. See "Europe on the wane " (https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-on-the-wane-global-economics-demographics-gdp/) for some numbers.
In the West 2+2 is now 'white racism'. In China, 2+2 is still 4. See "As US Schools Prioritize Diversity Over Merit, China Is Becoming the World’s STEM Leader" (https://quillette.com/2021/08/19/as-us-schools-prioritize-diversity-over-merit-china-is-becoming-the-worlds-stem-leader/). The quantitative data supports this conclusion as well. See "China’s rise as a major contributor to science and technology" (https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1407709111). The PNAS article is from 2014. Since then, China has become the number one producer of scientific papers. See https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Science/China-passes-US-as-world-s-top-researcher-showing-its-R-D-might for some data.
The reality is that liberal democracy in the West is in deep decline and authoritarian states are on the rise. China passed the US in real GDP years ago and hasn’t looked back. For better or worse, authoritarian China is a rising power and ‘woke’ America is a declining power. I have a single line that summarizes the decline of the USA and the rise of China.
“China is very good at building dams, the US is very good at enforcing PC. Which system will prevail in the 21st century?”.
I'm no expert, and I'm worried about woke run amok as well, but I think it is possible to overstate its influence. You suggest that the US is very good at enforcing PC. I would say it's very good at producing wealth.
Measuring GDP by purchasing power parity is helpful for comparing living standards, but it is less helpful for comparing the relative global strength of economies. For that, nominal GDP, or GDP at current exchange rates, is a more accurate measure. By that measure, even though it has long been predicted that China's nominal GDP would have overtaken the U.S.'s by now, it hasn't happened. According to The Economist, China's GDP was 75% of America's in 2021, and it has been going dramatically in the wrong direction since. It is now 65% of America's. And, of course, per capita GDP, a good indicator of a nation's economic productivity, is nowhere close. Thus, the population trends Mounk highlights -- Chinese population decline, American population increase -- are quite important when thinking about the future. This story is simply not consistent with your dire view.
What's most encouraging to me about America is that it seems to have largely escaped the sort of slowing trends that have bedeviled other rich, mature economies. We may yet prove susceptible to those trends, especially if we dramatically restrict immigration while at the same time experiencing declining birthrates among the native-born, especially if we turn sharply protectionist and autarkic. But it seems more likely to me that the American economy will keep bopping along, attracting massive amounts of global investment and talent and producing the next big thing, which, right now, appears to be AI, led by, as nearly always in the modern world, American companies.
China’s nominal GDP lags the US for now. However, that is not (in this context), the good news. The Chinese currency is undervalued and China enjoys a vast trade surplus. The US, by contrast, has an overvalued currency and suffers from a vast trade deficit.
By 2050, China’s economy will be 2X-3X the USA.
I would say that steel production is a (one of several) measure of economic power, not growth China produced 1019.1 million tons of steel (2023). The U.S. produced 80.7 million tons of steel in the same year. China is ‘only’ 12.6x the US. Of course, China’s lead in other areas is even greater. For example, China produces 29.6 times as much cement as the US. China is far ahead in Copper, Gold, Cobalt, Nickel, Aluminum, etc. In other areas, China isn’t doing as well. For example, the US produces vastly more Natural Gas than China. The US also produces a lot more oil than China. I would argue that overall agricultural position of the US is better than China (flatter, fewer people, more fertile).
Of course, Natural Gas and Oil are driven mostly by geology. Both China and the US have lots of Coal (in the ground). China produces 4.126 billion tons (2021). The US produced 523.8 million tons in the same year.
I would say that coal and steel were good (arguably the best) measures of economic power from 1850 to 1950. After 1950, less so. These days electric power is a measure of economic power. China produces twice as much as the US. However, there are problems using power production as a measure of economic power. Some countries are more ‘electricity intensive’ than others. For example, China use electricity to heat water (there must be exceptions) whereas the US typically burns Natural Gas.
GDP is a good measure of overall economic power. China passed the US (in GDP) around 2012 and China’s lead (in GDP) has only grown. GDP is not perfect. For example, the US passed the UK in GDP in the early 1870s. Did that make the US a dominant world power? Not exactly. In the early 1870s, US GDP contained a rather large farm component which contributed little to global economic power. The US had just finished the Civil War and was deeply isolationist. Neither statement applied to the UK.
By contrast, China’s GDP contains a rather large manufacturing component that does contribute to world economic power. To state this directly, China punches above it’s weight.
The US has a rather large service sector that does not contribute to world economic power. To state this directly, the US punches below it’s weight.