I'm pretty sure that none of the three of you participate on the party level. I recommend that you get involved. It's not someone else's work and then you just write articles and make commentary. You need to write your articles and join the parties. I'm an elected PCO for the Dems in Seattle. I'm there to try and make reform toward moderation happen because the D-party left-wing insiders here in Seattle are over-the-top leftists. The R-party right-wingers here are over the top as well. I have no vote at the D meetings because moderates stopped participating years ago. Currently, I'm building an organization called The Bipartisan Wing to join moderates from both parties and independents, too. This could lead to a majority moderate coalition. While we ask people to join our bipartisan wing group, we also need them to join their respective party organization in their legislative district because the zealots must be eased out of the trees where they currently exist. I hope you will join your parties today and let your voices be heard. Be a bipartisan winger, too. Vote for the moderate candidate who is closest to your values, not necessarily in your party. This will help heal the political divide because right now it's the leftist fundamentalists fighting the rightist fundamentalists. Nothing good comes from that.
"I think the correct view is that it's a toss up" This is circular. As any systems theorist (a real one, not these "systemic" this-or-that types), when you see a system lock onto some special point it must be because there are restoring forces that correct deviations.
And that's what we are seeing. Sure we've seen the Democrats win many elections in a row and the R's do the same. But we've never seen the system lock onto say 58% Dem 42% R or anything peculiar like that. Under Roosevelt and Truman there were big fluctuations.
And look at the point that's been locked onto -- 50/50 -- that's an extremely specially point in a democratic system. The reason we are locked onto that and never onto any other point must be system dynamics (restoring forces that favor locking onto that). So the point of this discussion should have been to discover that dynamic, which is caused by forces that push toward 50/50 from both sides.
I don't know the answer, I've learned some formal system theory, but taken no polisci. But let me guess just to show an example of the kind of thing to look for.
If the Dems feel like they are getting into pretty safe territory, maybe 54/46 is looking pretty likely, that empowers the far left to say, "Hey look, we're making too many compromises in order to win elections, we're safe enough, so let's show our moral principles. Let's show we have spine." That kind of argument sells pretty well among moderate Dems, who are easily embarrassed by being told they are not virtuous enough. So they cave in to the far left, move the party left, and lose some popularity with the nation as a whole.
If that dynamic operates on even one side, it tends to lead toward 50/50. If it operates on both sides, we would probably get a lot of nail biters for Nov elections.
Missing from this discussion is money. I see no serious policy from either party, but I do see a battle over a piece of government debt that is expected to triple from 2000-2029. The amount of cash to be gained by being a party insider is enormous. The Inflation Reduction Act, for example, is an open-ended honey pot that enriches a few at the expense of our children, grandchildren, and national security.
In normal society, a person needs to toil for years, take risks, borrow money, provide something useful to the public, and hire hundreds or thousands of people to make a tenth of what politicians walk away with. The dreaded military industrial complex is now something far larger and more menacing than Ike could have imagined.
Under these circumstances, gridlock is the best that can be hoped for. We see what happens when one party gains control. In this, California and Florida are mirror images. California became dysfunctional long ago. The influence of former Jim-Crow Democrats on the Florida Republican Party makes them meaner and more backwards every day. I would love to see a normal and responsible Democratic opposition. Dream on.
Unless there emerges a clear political message that stresses good government and economic prudence, with a real focus on actual problems, the best we can do is to kneecap the politicians. Meanwhile, the area around D.C. is not Rome, but Constantinople.
I'm pretty sure that none of the three of you participate on the party level. I recommend that you get involved. It's not someone else's work and then you just write articles and make commentary. You need to write your articles and join the parties. I'm an elected PCO for the Dems in Seattle. I'm there to try and make reform toward moderation happen because the D-party left-wing insiders here in Seattle are over-the-top leftists. The R-party right-wingers here are over the top as well. I have no vote at the D meetings because moderates stopped participating years ago. Currently, I'm building an organization called The Bipartisan Wing to join moderates from both parties and independents, too. This could lead to a majority moderate coalition. While we ask people to join our bipartisan wing group, we also need them to join their respective party organization in their legislative district because the zealots must be eased out of the trees where they currently exist. I hope you will join your parties today and let your voices be heard. Be a bipartisan winger, too. Vote for the moderate candidate who is closest to your values, not necessarily in your party. This will help heal the political divide because right now it's the leftist fundamentalists fighting the rightist fundamentalists. Nothing good comes from that.
"I think the correct view is that it's a toss up" This is circular. As any systems theorist (a real one, not these "systemic" this-or-that types), when you see a system lock onto some special point it must be because there are restoring forces that correct deviations.
And that's what we are seeing. Sure we've seen the Democrats win many elections in a row and the R's do the same. But we've never seen the system lock onto say 58% Dem 42% R or anything peculiar like that. Under Roosevelt and Truman there were big fluctuations.
And look at the point that's been locked onto -- 50/50 -- that's an extremely specially point in a democratic system. The reason we are locked onto that and never onto any other point must be system dynamics (restoring forces that favor locking onto that). So the point of this discussion should have been to discover that dynamic, which is caused by forces that push toward 50/50 from both sides.
I don't know the answer, I've learned some formal system theory, but taken no polisci. But let me guess just to show an example of the kind of thing to look for.
If the Dems feel like they are getting into pretty safe territory, maybe 54/46 is looking pretty likely, that empowers the far left to say, "Hey look, we're making too many compromises in order to win elections, we're safe enough, so let's show our moral principles. Let's show we have spine." That kind of argument sells pretty well among moderate Dems, who are easily embarrassed by being told they are not virtuous enough. So they cave in to the far left, move the party left, and lose some popularity with the nation as a whole.
If that dynamic operates on even one side, it tends to lead toward 50/50. If it operates on both sides, we would probably get a lot of nail biters for Nov elections.
Missing from this discussion is money. I see no serious policy from either party, but I do see a battle over a piece of government debt that is expected to triple from 2000-2029. The amount of cash to be gained by being a party insider is enormous. The Inflation Reduction Act, for example, is an open-ended honey pot that enriches a few at the expense of our children, grandchildren, and national security.
In normal society, a person needs to toil for years, take risks, borrow money, provide something useful to the public, and hire hundreds or thousands of people to make a tenth of what politicians walk away with. The dreaded military industrial complex is now something far larger and more menacing than Ike could have imagined.
Under these circumstances, gridlock is the best that can be hoped for. We see what happens when one party gains control. In this, California and Florida are mirror images. California became dysfunctional long ago. The influence of former Jim-Crow Democrats on the Florida Republican Party makes them meaner and more backwards every day. I would love to see a normal and responsible Democratic opposition. Dream on.
Unless there emerges a clear political message that stresses good government and economic prudence, with a real focus on actual problems, the best we can do is to kneecap the politicians. Meanwhile, the area around D.C. is not Rome, but Constantinople.
See Germany for the collapse of the Green Party for a vision of what is going to happen with the US political parties.
Oh boy…